Gartner’s Hype Cycle and Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis Andrew Davis
I’ve been working on a brand new comprehensive methodology in which to chart the evolution of a web distribution channel or platform’s life cycle, called The Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis. It’s still in its early stages of development, but I wanted to share some of my early hypothesis here in the hopes of sparking a dialogue.
Gartner’s Hype Cycle
I’ve heard about Gartner’s Hype Cycle before and it’s only recently that I’ve found value in this kind of trend analysis.
Gartner's Hype Cycle from August, 2008
Gartner’s Hype Cycle (above) is designed to chart the adoption cycle of a specific technology. For example, in the chart above “Corporate Blogging” appears in the Trough of Disillusionment and is about to enter the Slope of Enlightenment. It’s expected to enter the Plateau of Productivity (and I assume be adopted in the mainstream) in the next two to five years.
This kind of trend analysis is valuable, however, I believe that Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis can actually deliver a more actionable understanding of any particular web content distribution channel (like corporate blogging) that is relevant to online content marketing professionals.
Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis
Our Life Cycle Analysis is a complicated theory only recently put into practice, however, so far it has proven extremely valuable.
Let’s look at the concept first and a couple of examples.
Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis
Our hypothesis is founded on the simple principle that the adoption of any platform (blogging, microblogging, photo sharing or live video streaming) or content distribution channel (youtube.com, slideshare.com, flickr.com or twitter.com) can be tracked openly and analyzed to determine where in our life cycle it is.
The life cycle has six distinct phases:
- Experiment - in this phase a new platform or channel debuts offering users a new way in which to communicate, share or create content. This phase is characterized by a small group of users constantly adding content (usually of low quality and high frequency.)
- Adopt - the Adoption phase is denoted by a wider audience attempting to utilize the new communication medium usually attempting to advance the quality of the content distributed.
- Gestate - the Gestation phase is marked by a small up swing in a core group of early adopters working to understand the value of the medium and providing relevant, frequent and high quality content to a wider audience. (This is where the ‘internet celebrities’ are usually discovered for the platform or channel.)
- Escalate – The Escalation phase marks the rapid growth of the channel or platform. Users (usually worldwide) begin adding content and frequently contributing. The mass media starts getting involved and users arrive in large numbers attempting to replicate the success found in the Gestation phase of the Life Cycle. The top of the escalation phase spawns a series of copy cat channels or platforms each trying to differentiate their offering slightly.
- Monetize - It’s at this point where mainstream users start wondering how to measure the ROI, or investors start to inquire about how they can monetize the new platform or channel. Growth slows while users try other services and the channel experiments with monetization models.
- Consolidate - When the monetize model is played out and proves possible (or impossible), attrition rates (from a user and content creator standpoint) are at its highest. Those providing the most valuable content try to find others like them and build larger communities and audiences for their content.
- Maintain - Finally, the channel or platform enters a maintain phase in the cycle. The platform/channel has been proven and monetized and the attrition rate basically equals the adoption rate.
Here are a couple of quick examples:
Tippingpoint Labs Life Cycle Analysis: Channel - Flickr.com
Here’s a look at where Twitter stands today in the Life Cycle:
Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis: Channel - Twitter.com
Now, it’s a complicated concept, and we’ve got lots of hypothesis on what marks the beginning of one phase and the end of another, but let’s look at how the Tippingpoint Life Cycle Analysis impacts our understanding of Gartner’s Hype Cycle.
Hype Cycle Under Tippingpoint Life Cycle
Now, taking the Tippingpoint Life Cycle Analysis and loosely overlaying it on Gartner’s Hype Cycle, it’s much easier to gain some insight into real insightful trend analysis.
Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis over Gartner's Hype Cycle
As you can see, our Life Cycle Analysis actually adds tremendous value to Gartner’s Hype Cycle. Now, one can actually define the relationships between a channel’s growth and the driving forces resulting in the Hype.
For example, at the height of the Escalation phase you’ll notice that Gartner’s Hype Cycle showcases a technology at the ‘Trough of Disillusionment.’ Now, you know why: with the highest number of users or content producers creating high volume, low quality, irrelevant content on the channel, it becomes full of noise. The ROI is unclear and content creators find themselves wondering – “where’s the value?”
I hope to expand on our Life Cycle Analysis and this theory in the coming weeks. Your feedback or insight is much appreciated.
Category: Life Cycle Update
Tagged: Gartner's Hype Cycle, Life Cycle Analysis, Tippingpoint Labs' Life Cycle Analysis
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[...] is well into its escalation phase. By definition, this means that the volume of content created is at its peak. It also means that [...]
[...] I mentioned earlier this week, we’ve been working on analyzing the life cycle for new and emerging web distribution [...]
[...] » Gartner’s Hype Cycle and Tippingpoint Labs’ Life Cycle Analysis at Tippingpoint Labs – Online… (tags: startup) [...]
Excellent analysis – great potential here from multiple perspectives. I have to love the content is king bedrock in the anlaysis. Overlaying with the hype-cycle helps illustrate potential vs. hype. Like an “S” curve analysis – the trick will be determining if that sharp up tick in users and content is entry into the escalation phase or a momentary blip of adoption. I like it!
Bob,
Thanks so much for contributing to our blog. It’s great to see you here!
I do believe that content is central to the success of any platform or channel and with some channels I have been able to showcase how the quality of the content actually moves the channel through its cycles.
I hope the new media lifecycle catches on.
Thanks again!
Am I over simplifying: “best content” makes way for the next phases: consolidation and monetization? As you suggest, it would be neat to see the same graph on three axes – where the third axis shows “driving forces.” On another thought stream: Have you looked at Wilber’s quandrant model?
Seth, I’m not sure it’s ‘the best’ or ‘most valuable’ content that makes way for consolidation and monetization. Monetization only occurs when volume or traction is high enough for investors or the public to start asking ‘how can they make money doing this.’ The quality of the content (as an aggregate) is actually at its lowest when you’re at the crest of the escalation phase. I like your concept of the third access for “driving forces.” I’m working on incorporating those into the model. I’m familiar with Wilber’s quadrants, however I haven’t figured out exactly how to make them fit my model yet. Keep the dialogue coming. I’m working hard on ironing out the visuals.
[...] I’ve explained in the New Media Life Cycle posts, channels like Twitter are in the middle of their escalation phase; where the content quality as an [...]
Interesting approach. Curious to learn more. Will stay tuned.
[...] to the length of time it takes for a channel to cycle through Escalation. As you can see in the Life Cycle Analysis above, the Escalation phase for MySpace, may actually lead to the migration of users to Facebook [...]
[...] Let’s first take a look at their traffic and make some snap judgements about where they are in the Life Cycle… [...]
[...] features that can really amp up your content distribution. It is now in the adoption stage of the Tippingpoint Labs Life Cycle Analysis. That means this is the right time to wrestle with and establish a presence there. The early [...]
[...] what we believe to be the future of online content distribution. I’ve also written about Tippingpoint Labs’ New Media Life Cycle Analysis in which I demonstrated the idea that comprehensive trend analysis can help determine where any new [...]
[...] have been greatly exaggerated. Or, in other words, it has entered the Consolidation phase of its New Media Life Cycle. This phase is characterized by the decline of most monetization models, successful or otherwise. [...]
Hi Seth,
I think you might go back to the original technology adoption life cycle by Bohlen, Beal and Rogers (1962) to compare your cycle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_adoption_lifecycle
and on the concept of diffusion of innovation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_of_innovations
As the Gartner cycle (1995) includes the possibility that all does not go well with technology adoption, while it seems to me your cycle assumes a technology will go through every stage of the cycle. I suspect Gartner’s hype cycle was inspired by Geoffrey Moore’s (1991) technology adoption model as described in his book Crossing the Chasm. I know I was inspired by Geoffrey when I wrote about companies crossing a chasm in my 2005 study on corporate blogging.
So if I was comparing your model to the Bohlen, Beal and Rogers model it might work, but if I compared to Moore or Gartner, the key missing ingredient is the possibility that a product might stall and not succeed in going through all of the stages of development. Could you add that and maybe something new in addition?
John,
Thanks so much for taking the time to write this!
Really wonderful references to other life cycles. I’ll dive into those deeper this week!
I really need to think through the issue you’ve posed: does a new media platform go through all the phases of its life cycle? Great question. Let me do some heavy analysis and get back to you!
Thanks again!
- Andrwe
Andrew, my sincerest apologies, I called you Seth! Glad you liked the references, ping me if you want to discuss more @johncass. Geoffrey’s book is really good. In fact, I think there’s been some further criticism of his model in recent years, if I find those references I will let you know.
John,
No big deal-I’ve been called worse. I just started following you on twitter and I will definitely take you up on that discussion about the hype cycle and the other ones you referenced.
Thanks again for contributing.