Twitter is Done. Tumblr is Next. Andrew Davis
Twitter's Fail Whale
In the past couple of weeks I’ve started to see evidence that Twitter might be entering its Trough of Disillusionment. The evidence you ask?
- A quick search on Google Trends for the phrase “Twitter Sucks” shows a HUGE spike starting in February of this year (10X more searches in March than in February).
- The recent explosion of a ‘vrial video’ about a fictional new nano-blogging site called Flutter had almost half a million views in the last week. (Or this video from a month ago with over 1.5 MM views.)
- Last week, Twitter users were hit with the first ‘Twitter Spam Hack Attack.‘
- People are quickly realizing that the more people you follow the less value you get out of the people you follow. I call this the Diminishing Tweet Value Theorem, which states that the value of your own twitter stream is inversely proportional to the number of people you follow.
- The mainstream media has grasped a firm hold on pushing their @ user names (a sure sign it’s nearing the top of its escalation phase).
- Rumors are rampant about a potential Google acquisition, and the debate about how exactly to monetize Twitter continues to escalate (another sure sign it’s heading towards the monetization phase of the Tippingpoint Labs New Media Life Cycle).
I’ll admit that the evidence above is fairly circumstantial, but I also believe that the most sophisticated Twitter users are slowly migrating to a better, more effective and much more immersive platform for their micro-blogging fix: Tumblr.com.
What’s Tumblr?
Tumblr.com Homepage
According to their homepage, TumbleLogs are:
“…the easiest way to express yourself. Tumblr makes it effortless to share text, photos, quotes, links, music, and videos, from your browser, phone, desktop, email, or wherever you happen to be. Customize everything. Tweak everything from colors to your theme’s HTML markup. Even use your own domain name.”
If you have a second, check out my TumbleLog – tpl.tumblr.com (it’s sparse, but I’ve spent most of my time exploring).
I believe that Tumblr is far more powerful and far more interesting and exciting than Twitter. The platform allows you to generate and share content from multiple services (including Vimeo or YouTube).
Tumblr.com Action Bar
It enables you to create text posts, video posts, audio posts (even from your mobile phone), photo posts, share links, even transcribe or post chats or dialogue you’ve overheard. Tumblr is truly a valuable, branded, content generation platform.
In addition, all the Twitter follower and retweet (Tumblr calls it ReBlogging) functionality is inherant in the platform. Customizing the look and feel of your TumbleLog is encouraged, and its flexibility enables content creators to really develop a unique experience for their audience.
Tumblr inherantly helps users create a valuable, nicely formatted and designed, feature-rich experience. That’s exactly what makes a good content consumption experience.
Tumblr’s Life Cycle Analysis
Tumblr.com New Media Life Cycle Analysis
Tumblr is nearing the end of its Adoption phase, in Tippingpoint’s Life Cycle Analysis. This means that very soon (I’d guess within the next three months) we’ll see big brands successfully using Tumblr to communicate and participate with the Tumblr community.
Tumblr skews young. According to Quantcast, 12% of their users are between 12 and 17 years old; another 38% are between the ages of 18 and 34. Compared to Twitter, this is a much younger audience. I believe that millions of young adults and teenagers completely skipped Twitter and went straight to Tumblr. In fact, I’ve had conversations with teenagers about Twitter, and their response goes something like this: “Twitter is stupid. Tumblr is awesome.” Teens get it quickly. They understand the value of sharing information online; however, what Twitter lacks is the ability to add context to the content you want to share. Tumblr allows you to do this.
If Twitter is a babbling four year old, going on and on about nothing important, Tumblr is a smart young adult digesting content, commenting on it and contextualizing it for their audience. That’s far more valuable.
Tumblr’s platform is very different. It’s more complex than Twitter. It’s more interesting than Twitter, and (I’ll admit) it takes more time to grasp and customize than Twitter, but that’s what actually makes it great.
Takeaway Message
My message here is simple. You should be spending AS MUCH time developing and distributing relevant content on Tumblr as you are on Twitter. Don’t just add your Twitter stream to your Tumblr account. (You can do this; however, it’s a rookie mistake.) You should be creating a new type of content for this new content creation and distribution channel. I’m not suggesting that you need to leave Twitter immediately (or ever, for that matter), but you must start experimenting with Tumblr as a platform.
Tumblr will generate some huge ‘celebrity’ hits in the next six months. If you’re not there, you won’t be the ‘next big thing.’
My Questions to You
What do you think of Tumblr? Are you done with Twitter? What’s your Tumblr URL? I want to check it out.
Category: Life Cycle Update
Tagged: Micro Bloggin, Social Media, Tumblr, Twitter
82 Comments »
Leave a Comment 
Interesting. But I think this a classic example of follow the early adopter mentality that affects a lot of tech thinking. We could have said the same thing about Facebook two years ago. If this is about “where the cool kids hang out” then perhaps, you have a point. I have noticed a lot of people spending a lot more time on Tumblr lately. Yes, at the expense of Twitter. Does it matter? In the end, numbers matter. And demographics matter. Twitter might be done in by its weird demographic. It’s a Gen X thing. Gen Y and the Millenials are on Tumblr. Boomers have adopted Facebook in a major way. But I don’t think Twitter is over. Not by any stretch. And I predict Tumblr won’t go big because it takes too much time. It’s something you have to construct. You actually have to build it. It might be too much for the masses. Perhaps not for kids – it’s like an online scrapbook, in the end. There’s a word we’re using at work here: the scrapblog. That’s kind of what Tumblr is.
Arjun,
That’s great stuff. I agree, Twitter’s not over. It probably never will be, but I do think Tumblr is much better and more effective for the right kind of content. Twitter will find it’s place, however I don’t think it will be as broadly used to generate and share content as it is today.
I love the ScrapBlog name. That’s really good!
Thanks for engaging. Always nice to see your Tweets!
Just signed up (thanks to your message – on Twitter!) and my first impression was it looks more like MySpace (a polished version) than Twitter. Seems cool regardless. Not really sure how it’ll fix the scalability problem though (follow many = diminished value on Tumblr too, right?).
I do agree with Arjun, the attraction might be simply because it’s new. Thanks to the hype on news media and folks like John McCain tweeting, Twitter has lost a lot of sheen. At the same time, conversations have become more serious (not many “need to feed my cat” any more), just see search.twitter.com.
FYI, when I open your page, I get the below error:
SecurityError: Error #2060: Security sandbox violation: ExternalInterface caller http://embed.12seconds.tv/sites/all/modules/quid_flashhelper/12omercial_player.swf cannot access http://tpl.tumblr.com/.
Sekhar,
Thanks for commenting. So glad you signed up. Your MySpace analogy isn’t too far off. I think it’s a factor of the demographic in fact. As the quality of the content adjusts I think we’ll see it shift. As for the diminishing value of Twitter Followers and the same potential on Tumblr, I think there will be a tendency to follow fewer people given the dashboard theme approach to digesting the content. Also, Arjun’s a smart guy!
PS. Thanks for the Error message. Looks like my 12Seconds embed is screwing it up. I’ll delete that one.
I’m not educated enough on the techie side to comment on the future of Tumblr vs Twitter, but I will say this. For me, and I presume others like me, with a desk so piled and business so busy, any social media takes considerable time period…Twitter allowed me to get in the game and play fast – it’s just about all I can do to hang on most days. I can’t imagine having the option to add/do more because I don’t know where the time will come from. As much as I love my new twitter feed and life – I am running out of time. But I’m still going to check it out.
Jennifer,
The time constraint is heard loud and clear. So glad you’re going to check it out. It’s worth it. At the very least, you’ll know what else is out there. Thanks for your comment! Hope all is well!
Tunblr is like a Pensieve. I push crap up to it that would overflow my mind if kept there. Not sure it is a Twitter replacement, but agree that Twitter is approaching “maturity” pretty quickly.
http://twitter.com/gerardmclean
Gerard,
Thanks for your comment. Given that Tumblr is in the Adoption phase, it’s still hard to find (or figure out) what kind of content will work there, so you’re right. It is like a sieve, straining your brain of crap. Keep posting stuff though, eventually someone will find the value. It’s typical of all early content generation platforms.
talking from my personal experience ,tumblr is very addictive,that’s for sure.
i stopped using twitter almost instantly when i discovered tumblr in december=]
i use it occasionally to spam with my tumblr posts,heh[u can incorporate twitter into tumblr;]there’s a lot of crap that people post,but there’s always unfollow button=] and a lot more interesting stuff,u just have to find right people[maybe i'm one of them;]‘couse i live in rather isolated country[serbia]so i use tumblr to gather information about latest trends in internet etc…
actually link to this post came thru my tumblr dashboard;]
my page is billyjane.tumblr.com
all the best
biljana
b.
Billy,
It’s so amazing that a nice platform like Tumblr can connect you and me half a world away. Thanks Billy. I’ll check out your page.
I’ve been a proud member of tumblr for a long time! I love it… except where it lacks content. Sure it’s more easy to post content on tumblr than on twitter but it often gets passed by if you’re not one of the big name users. I’ve found that most of the people who use tumblr are there because pete wentz and other famous people use it and the following function paired with the dashboard makes it super easy to keep up with them.
The other issue with tumblr is that while it facilitates creativity(and ease of use or whatever), and mass amounts of stuff it really lacks when it comes to being able to weed out the crap. I follow about 215 people and I have a hard time going through all the stupid flickr reblogs and the posts I’ve seen 8,000 times because they’ve been reblogged. Another thing that happens, especially because it’s primarily used by the younger group is that conversations end up being reblogged and while that’s awesome for stalking people and knowing micro details about stuff it’s sort of annoying(I will admit I do it sometimes too, but it’s still not fun).
One of the most enjoyable things about tumblr is how the dashboard works. If you enable it you get notifications when someone ‘likes’ or reblogs a post and if you click on your name to the right you can see it all at once. It’s possibly the best thing ever. I love not having to visit indivudual blogs to see updates(though I still do because they get lost in the mass amounts of posting). I really think that someone should develop an app like tweetdeck for tumblr because to sort through the posts sometimes is insane. I miss a lot of content.
The reblog function is great too… except when its over used. Sometimes I see the same picture or quote 500 billion times in one day from all the people I follow. Before tumblr was used by loads of people it was excellent for finding new creative people and innovators… it’s sort of been taken over by jackasses and 14 year old girls who are in love with pete wentz.
Or the julia allisons of the world.
Some of the other things I’ve noticed are “it’s not what you post, it’s what you reblog”, “it’s not who you follow, it’s who follows you”, and just like with every other service out there there’s a lot of inner circle drama. Which you can be privileged to hear about via everyone. The crap with David Karp, and Julia Allison and that whole crowd rivals buzznets drama.
That being said, I’ll probably stick around for awhile under my current user name before starting over(in fact I’ve already done this) in an attempt to get back at what I joined for – an easy, fun way to share things with people[it was better before it had all the new features]. Because it really is one of the most sophisticated, easy and unique blogging sites out there right now and to give it up because of the mass amounts of crap posted is just stupid.
Hannah,
That is some of the most valuable insight into Tumblr I’ve seen to date! You obviously understand the platform and have already pointed out some of the things that tumblr should work on fixing, some things users can do to make the most use of the platform and some tips to make a newbies experience more enjoyable. That kind of advice helps elevate the content as a whole. THANKS so much for sharing that! Very valuable.
Funny… even though I don’t know most of the people that I follow on tumblr I do enjoy the quality of the utility and spend MUCH more time on it then I do twitter.
Brad,
Thanks for the feedback. We’re seeing some great stuff from people like you who have adopted the platform early.
Tumblr is great. It is, and can be as powerful as any blogging platform like Wordpress or Blogger, but people are more attracted to its social element of followers and followees. Not sure about it being the next Twitter though. Tumblr’s been around for a while and I think it has missed it’s timing to attract a user base like Twitter.
jaycruz.tumblr.com
Jay – Thanks so much for your input. I think Tumblr’s got real potential and I don’t think they missed the boat. They are growing rapidly and all it takes is some mass media attention and some real content to make the whole platform move into escalation. It may still find it’s due. Twitter was around for a long time too (founded in 2006) before it hit escalation. Thanks again.
Great article Andrew,
i agree with the notion that twitter has reached it’s point of maturity and that tumblr is quite possibly the next big thing. i have a few gripes with both, and as a result tumblr gets the majority of my time. Now, all i really use twitter for is following the news, (which i think is its most redeeming quality), especially through TweetDeck or DestroyTwitter; its really an amazing mini news feed / rss feed. i find the idea of communicating over twitter too tedious, especially if you’re constantly having conversations; but that’s where the apps come in. For tumblr, i think everyone appreciates its function as a scrapbook / pseudo-blog. i know everyone who spends large portions of their day on the web deep down want a website or a blog, but don’t have the time to commit or feel overwhelmed by the fear of lacking creativity to constantly and continually post. i think this where the true brilliance of the reblog function shines (albeit i do share Hannah’s criticisms of its overuse). The reblogging and the following actually generates and motivates people to seek things outside their usual frame of reference, and it does so with a lot more effect than a few tweets; the visual and stylistic impact of tumblr is profound.
but with all this being said, i wish they made an update on tumblr for the dashboard to filter users, or reorganize how one views its content. any tumblr user knows when they start following too many people, a few hours will go by and they will be 15 pages behind in their dashboard. i really enjoy the content of everyone i follow but sometimes to navigate through all the stuff is really tedious (same goes for anything one “likes”, a way to organize or navigate in their is essential). and possibly a messaging / inbox feature to contact tumblrs you wish to commend or get in contact with, would be a nice feature because sometimes you want to commend someone personally or send them a quick note but you have no way of doing it unless the person enables commenting (which makes everything public and eliminates any privacy) through services like disqus (which is a great feature by the way, everyone should enable Disqus commenting on their tumblelogs for sure).
i look forward to discovering more amazing tumblelogs because, as eveyone has noted, the creativity, ingenuity and critical engagement in the right places is amazing. (by the way, if anyone wants to see mine, you can find me at: m-izzo.tumblr.com!)
Cheers!
Mohamed,
Glad you liked the article. I think you are dead on with the value of twitter. I think twitter is the most comprehensive news gathering engine I’ve ever seen. I think that if there was a way users or even twitter could formalize the creation or process for creating news feeds (by geography or topic or other) I think you could tune in to any news feed at any time. For example: perhaps I want to know what’s going on in my local area – i could look at 02138.twitter.com and see all the relevant, geographical news from twitter happening now.
Anyway, your filtering concept is great! I agree, filtering your roles on the web (and your interests in something like Tumblr) is really important.
I just followed you on Tumblr. Good luck in Calgary!
I started with Twitter a year and a half ago, but then forgot about it. I took it as a site for people that like the status bar on Facebook or MySpace. I always found it difficult to sum up my current “status” in a few words. Plus, I didn’t think anyone really cared that “I’m glad it’s Friday!”
I just started using Twitter again a couple months ago when I started a Tumblr account. I wanted to put my thoughts out there and couldn’t find another place to do it easily. I almost went with Blogspot or Wordpress instead, but all the impressive blogs had been on Tumblr. I’m glad I did. I like that it is so easy to share what I read, pictures that I like, and music I find. I’m only following 38 people but I like the dashboard that reads like a sophisticated Twitter home page. I like that if I’m on another site and see something interesting, I can use the “Share on Tumblr” feature to send it to my blog without having to go to the Tumblr site. I also like that I can send text messages or photos from my phone directly to Tumblr so I’m posting even when I’m away. My Tumblr is set up to send everything to Twitter so I can update both at the same time.
The only critique I have for Tumblr is the main one I have for Twitter. When you follow too many people (or one person decides to post a lot at once), it’s hard to stay on top of. I think if Tumblr simply added the ability to see the dashboard as one-line summaries that you can click on to expand to the full post (without going to that blog), it would let you see 40 to 50 at a glance rather than 10 to 12.
Dustin,
Thanks for sharing your experience. I also like your feature idea for expanding and contracting posts on Tumblr. Much more managable. The sorting of different people you follow would also help I think.
Thanks,
Drew
[...] gathering, getting ready to “storm the castle”? John Brissenden points to an interesting post by Andrew Davis @ TippingPoint Labs about Tumblr being the heir-apparent to all the buzz that got [...]
http://nakaonwood.tumblr.com
I’m 25 and one of those guys that skipped twitter to go straight to tumblr. It’ll be interesting to see how this twit/tumb thing will play out. I loved tumblr the first time I saw it and actually tried to resist joining but I gave in after 6 hours of pointlessly telling myself why I don’t need a another social website/blog. I think tumblr is very attractive to artists as they can post their work on a very cool looking interface w/ little other clutter. Some of the most popular tumblelogs I’ve seen seem be from from graphic designers, painters, photographers,video creators, etc that basically use tumblr as a portfolio w/ social network features. No matter how it goes I’m hooked on tumblr for the long haul.
http://nakaonwood.tumblr.com
Follow me ;-)
Odinaka,
I’m following you now. Hope the content is great! Thanks for your feedback.
- Drew
http://nakaonwood.tumblr.com
I’m 25 and one of those guys that skipped twitter to go straight to tumblr. It’ll be interesting to see how this twit/tumb thing will play out. I loved tumblr the first time I saw it and actually tried to resist joining but I gave in after 6 hours of pointlessly telling myself why I don’t need a another social website/blog. I think tumblr is very attractive to artists as they can post their work on a very cool looking interface w/ little other clutter. Some of the most popular tumblelogs I’ve seen seem be from from graphic designers, painters, photographers,video creators, etc that basically use tumblr as a portfolio w/ social network features. No matter how it goes I’m hooked on tumblr for the long haul.
I’m a comedian that uses tumblr to post about my inspiration, what makes me think, and of course sketches and funny ideas.
http://nakaonwood.tumblr.com
Follow me ;-)
I think the best way for me to summarize how I value the information from four respective services is in the order or priority at which I check them when I’m particularly busy during the day at work:
1) Tumblr – I make a point to keep the signal vs. noise ratio very low here. I cap the amount of people I follow at 100. Any overflow, I follow via their RSS feed.
2) Twitter – TweetDeck helps me identify the people I don’t want to miss throughout the day but sometimes I just have to let Twitter rush on by.
3) Google Reader – I’m subscribed to 500+ RSS feeds that generate almost 25,000 items of content each month. Rarely do I bomb-out and “mark all as read.” Every few days, if I’m behind, I’ll be sure to plow through.
4) Facebook – I had a bone to pick with FB when they re-designed. I argued that it really changed the value of the news feed. I’m a bit more used to it now but it’s always the last to get checked because it represents ephemera from real-life relationships that I usually am up-to-speed on b/c they’re things that happen offline.
Addendum: I did a post not too long ago about distributed audiences and the value of these connections. Especially when it comes to what these different services represent. The world needs to stop freaking out about the notion of followers. Accept that, if you’re valuable to someone, they’ll follow you the way that works best for them. It’s your job to make those features available and go back to doing what you do best: http://www.openthedialogue.com/2009/03/distributed-audiences/.
I have been using tumblr since Nov. 2007 and I love the ease of publishing a wide variety of post types. For me the two services serve different purposes. Tumblr is a place for me to publish my content while I scrapbook everything I find along the way. Twitter is a place to connect with people and create interest in your content, which is hosted elsewhere. Outside of quotes and conversations, it’s a bit too hard for me to get my message across in 140 characters or less so twitter might be where I start a conversation, but it gets finished on tumblr.
http://poortaste.tumblr.com
@stevenphibbs
Nice one Andrew. I agree – Tumblr is definitely higher quality than Twitter. I just hope all the ’social media guys’ and ‘internet marketers’ don’t read this and come over to Tumblr :-)
I’ve been on Tumblr for nearly a year and a half now, and on Twitter for about half of that.
I have to admit that Tumblr is where my heart is, in terms of following people. Maybe it’s because I’ve been following some of these people for so long that I feel connected in some way, in the same way that I’ve had people who have followed me since practically day one.
I started on Twitter as a way of keeping up with these Tumblr people on a different medium, but have expanded the range of people I follow to non-Tumblrs as well.
I find that I use the two sites for different things. Twitter is for when I’m out and about, or for crappy, instant thoughts/photos. I also find it easier to have conversations on Twitter, with @replies one line in length. But finding interesting people is really difficult on Twitter. Retweeting isn’t as embedded in the Twitter psychology as reblogging is on Tumblr, so it’s hard to tell where things originate and who actually makes the insightful comment.
With Tumblr’s ‘Notes’ feature in particular, it’s very, very easy to look at the Reblogging chain and see where value was added by whom. The feature also makes it easy to find people who have similar tastes to yourself: I liked a post, you liked a post, you probably will post your own material that I will like too. Hence it’s a bit more of a community feel to it.
Having said that, it’s easy to find yourself in a circle of some sort, where you all follow each other and you see the same thing reblogged a couple of times. I tend to unfollow when I notice certain people reblogging more than they produce their own content.
Tumblr can be a ’scrapblog’ as per the above comment, and some people use it exclusively in this sense, posting only what they’ve found on their internet travels that day, or reblogging other people’s content. Those are the types of Tumblr I ignore.
I like to think that I use it as a blog with extras. It’s just as easy to write a lengthy blog post on Tumblr as it is on Blogger, Wordpress and the like. And people WILL read it, even if the Dashboard is more biased towards short posts.
What Tumblr enables you to do is to expand your range: your writing shows one side of you, but so do the photos you take, the music you post, the sites you link to. Tumblr has this multi-faceted ability that Twitter simply cannot compare to.
I don’t think Twitter is dead, not by a long way. But Tumblr is the way forward for me.
@gooneruk
Rob,
That’s really great insight! Much appreciated!
I also don’t think Twitter is dead. I do think it is about to head into the Trough of Disillusionment though. This means that Twitter will go through something of a rebirth as it figures out exactly where it fits.
Thanks again!
I too am one of those 20 somethings that went straight for the tumblr. But not after trying out twitter..hating that I got confined to only 140 characters, dropping it, and then coming back..not sure why..but I still don’t like it really.
I am in a love affair with tumblr, and I’m not sure how long it will last (as others have noticed), it might just be a fleeting thing that I grow out of, like AIM or even my old Blogger account(which I now update sparingly, if only for long, drawn out, whiny posts). But, like Rob said, it is my obsession right now, and I can’t get enough of it.
I actually follow Rob on tumblr (which sounds creepy saying it here), and I think the human aspect that he was talking about, the “so this is what goes inside a persons head”..and thank God I’m not the only one who thinks like that” is what is so great about it. I have a great deal of friends in real life, and I have this group of people, literally a social network of people, online who allow me to see into their lives, their opinions, and often times the first hand news stories. One girl I follow is a teacher in upstate NY and was in a high school down the road when they took the immigration center hostage, she posted about being on lock down, and CNN hadn’t even posted anything.
This is a social network that people all over the country are having ‘tumblr meet ups’ and getting to be friends in real life and actually socializing after knowing each other on the internet. Nothing like that would ever happen with twitter, unless I happen to show up where ever Shaq says he is…..
Anyway, I’m sure these sentiments have been expressed before but I thought I would comment as well. my tumblr is irishmexi.tumblr.com and while it’s not the most popular or coherent, or even the most accurate portrayal of me, it’s nice to have a quick outlet, with quick responses.
Thanks!
As someone who has SCOFFED at Twitter from the moment it launched, this post was music to my eyes. I actually like Tumblr…a LOT. Thanks for the great post. Hopefully people are listening.
[...] Twitter is Done. Tumblr is Next. I’ve been an avid fan and user of both services for years, and I don’t quite agree that one is replacing the other. I do agree, however, that Tumblr is a much more robust platform when it comes to giving context to content. [...]
Andrew,
Someone sent me your link, because I’m an admitted GenX Twitter addict. I just wanted to congratulate you on not only an informative post, but I also truly appreciate the time you spent commenting and adding more context to the posts of your visitors. Affirming their continuation in the conversation stream is a huge demonstration of the value of this type of social media in the first place. Well done.
Kelly
@KellyFerrara
Kelly,
Thanks so much for acknowledging the responses. You made my day. I do try to make sure I engage with everyone who takes the time to share their opinions. I’m actually going to start a daily chat here online so that really passionate people (and there are so many of them) can engage and discuss a daily topic in real time.
It’s worth experimenting with.
Anyway, this is my job and I really love the intelligent conversations that take place. Everyone has something valuable to offer – and quite frankly – I learn a lot myself.
Thanks again,
Andrew
@Kelly, I second that. It’s not often you see a writer respond so meticulously to (so many) comments. Makes you want to comment and come back.
Sekhar,
Thanks as well… I feel that if people take the time to engage with me I owe them the courtesy of knowing that I’m listening and appreciate the dialogue (whether I agree or not.) That’s how I learn. I see so much value in this kind of conversation.
Have a great weekend.
- Andrew
I read this post on the 15th when it was first released. Actually, I skimmed it. Due to my crazy busy schedule I didn’t get around to reading the entire post and all the comments until today. I think you make some interesting points and predictions.
I’m old enough to remember how popular WordPerfect was in the 80s. It was not the best word processor but it was the most widely used at the time. Its popularity lasted a long time.
In Twitter’s case, popularity translates to momentum and market share. That said, its lack of economic business model is its biggest risk. I think the clock is ticking. Twitter could become as big as YouTube, or it could lose its shiny object status and get replaced by something like Tumblr.
I’m with Jennifer on time constraints. Running a business and keeping pace with Twitter, Facebook and LinkedIn relationships is more than a full time gig. I don’t think I can throw another one in the mix now even if it is better. But, that remains to be seen.
Great conversation Drew (as always)!
Bernie,
Thanks again for contributing to the discussion. Really appreciate it. I don’t think Twitter will be replaced, however, I do think it needs to evolve rapidly.
YouTube even hasn’t evolved fast enough to exploit it’s market dominance. Great new platforms like HULU or Joost or Boxee have forced YouTube to start offering programming – real, high-quality, licensed programming. User-generated content must evolve as well.
As for the time constraints. I think if you’re spending (let’s say) 15% of your online content creation or promotion time and energy on Twitter, you should start spending 7.5% on twitter and 7.5% on Tumblr.
I really believe Tumblr is a great platform and fits as the next evolution in the twitter world.
Thanks again!
[...] more absurd: Now bloggers are starting to say Twitter is done. I thought it was only now hitting mainstream? It’s one thing to take a company like Cuil—that [...]
[...] more absurd: Now bloggers are starting to say Twitter is done. I thought it was only now hitting mainstream? It’s one thing to take a company like Cuil—that [...]
[...] more absurd: Now bloggers are starting to say Twitter is done. I thought it was only now hitting mainstream? It’s one thing to take a company like Cuil—that [...]
I think that friendfeed can be the next thing because it integrates with twitter serving as a great client to filter and extend twitter in ways that tumblr can’t.
Vik,
Friendfeed might very well be one of the next big things. I put FriendFeed in a different category than Tumblr or Twitter: I think FriendFeed is more a content aggregation engine, allowing you to centralize all the content you create elsewhere – Flickr, YouTube, StumbleUpon. It’s very valuable – but very different.
- Drew
Almost from the moment Tumblr was shown to me by friends, it quickly became my home page. I am a writer/filmmaker (a bit past 12-17 years of age) and Tumblr has become an excellent personal web hub for me.
You can easily link from Tumblr to your Facebook, Myspace, Youtube, Flickr, and Twitter accounts, etc. These links remain static along the sides of your page (or elsewhere, based on your design preferences). The middle of the page is yours in which to play, create, express, etc. Updating your website becomes instantly fun. And what makes Tumblr especially captivating is its dashboard which allows you to “follow” fellow Tumblrs of your choosing. Their posts are a continuous peek into the lives, the interests, the thoughts and the creativity of people the world over. They are a window from which it is often difficult to look away. Great article. My Tumblr is at LouisePalanker.com
Louise,
Thanks so much for your take on Tumblr. It’s a great way to put the world’s content into your context. I think you’re right on.
Thanks for sharing!
I actually started using Tumblr before I used Twitter. So I’d be on of those teenagers that skipped straight to Tumblr.
I really like Tumblr. It’s so much easier than LJ or Blogger. And the dashboard is organized and neat and there’s not lots of clutter with ads. It’s also great that you can create multiple tumblelogs and let other people post to it. It’s really helpful because I run the blog for an organization and other people can post too without having to ask me to post it.
I’m not going to stop using Twitter because I don’t really see them as the same service. Twitter is more of a place I can quickly post where I’m going, and what I’m doing. Tumblr is more of where I really elaborate on what I’m thinking.
http://misformay.tumblr.com
http://reaching-out.tumblr.com
@MisforMay
May,
I think you’re right. You don’t have to stop using Twitter. They’re great for very different things. I think Twitter is much better for breaking news – telling people what’s happening now. Tumblr is the next step – allowing you to add context to breaking news.
Thanks so much for engaging.
Thanks for this article and I’m enjoying the thoughtful comments and responses–a rarity online. I’ve wondered why tumblr wasn’t adopted my more people earlier because as you note, it’s so easy. But now I’m thinking perhaps it took something like twitter to make people embrace blogging/micro-blogging and now that more have a taste of it, tumblr with it’s more robust features will appeal to more people. Anyway, thanks for your post.
Lunamania,
Thanks for taking the time to engage. It’s when quality people join the conversation that make the work of writing and posting these articles worth it.
I think I know why Tumblr might not have been embraced by a more mainstream audience in the early days. I think you need to have experienced the most simple micro blogging platform (Twitter) to make sense of Tumblr. Tumblr is a little more advanced and unless you’ve tweeted it seems a little too involved.
That’s my theory anyway.
Thanks again!
I loved this article, and am in complete agreement. I never liked Twitter from the start, and I can say I am definitely on that train of teens skipping it and hopping right to Tumblr. And as for Twitter, honestly, no one cares what you’re doing right now.
Ivy,
Thanks for your comment! So glad people like you are still weighing in. Twitter has a very high attrition rate. I’m not sure what Tumblr’s attrition rate looks like, but my guess is that it’s much more sticky.
Thanks again.
I like Twitter but it has begun to annoy me lately much in the same way I’ve become disillusioned with Facebook but just for different reasons–each has its own annoyance factors. I’m not really one to blog a lot so Twitter WAS appealing initially because of the brevity. That said, I LOVE Tumblr because I can be just as brief–but I don’t have to be–but it’s cool if I simply “reblog” a post. I feel more connected to my Tumblr than to my WordPress blog or whatever.
I’m not all that technical but I’ve figured out a few ways to spice up my page and make it look more personalized. I also like the follow feature, dashboard, etc. It’s very user-friendly. Not sure if it will replace Twitter but it’s certainly a fun site. For me, it’s actually replaced Facebook now that FB is organized so poorly.
I’m typically not happy with any service I come across online. They always lack some element(s) I need, so I end up having to sign up for multiple blogging/social sites just to accomplish one goal – and I’ve gotten over that quickly.
I started using Twitter about a month ago and I love it. I won’t stop liking it just because of some perceived social ticking clock because it’s not a matter of popularity for me. When people use websites just because it’s the “next cool thing everyone is doing”, they’re always going to be over it quickly and it will always have a limited shelf life for that group.
I couldn’t care less about what celebrities are using or what “gen x, gen y, gen abc 123″ is into. I like Twitter because it isn’t cluttered – period. It has one purpose – follow people with interesting updates, post quick updates of your own – and it accomplishes it well.
I’m more interested in services that can get one thing right than I am in services that give you dozens of options that you either don’t need or that have obvious flaws BECAUSE there are dozens of options for the developers to focus on (see; jack of all trades, master of none).
I have my own website. All I wanted beyond it was to join a networking site that has a lot of visibility, has a streamlined interface (so I don’t spend half of my time waiting for control panels to load or navigating a million different sections with a million more subsections just to make changes, etc), has clean and uniform user profiles so there are no “unappreciated surprises”, and that functions like a “two-way newsfeed” (quick and easy to follow updates I want, easily allows others to follow mine).
Twitter was perfect for me for those reasons, so I joined and don’t regret it.
I hate Myspace. The interface is too cluttered, its pages take longer to load than other social sites I’ve used, its search functions should be made more compact and the results are wonky enough for them to often be useless, there are too many ads all over the place, it has too many features I have no interest in using, and makes it too easy for people to spam you with invites, requests, and the like – not to mention it offers too much customization options for profiles, making viewing profiles an obnoxious chore.
Music blasting when you hit the page playing off flash players it takes forever to find, poorly sized graphics and videos and poorly written HTML/CSS code that keep the profiles loading for ages, constantly expanding and shifting as things catch up, flopping the static content around.
Needless to say, Myspace got old for me almost immediately. I was done with it just when it was heating up for everyone else. Now, I have a blank account on there used only to view items real world friends want me to see that I can’t access without having a log in. Beyond that, I never use it. Ever.
I also hate Facebook. It has a cleaner layout and interface than Myspace, but is still cluttered for my taste. In fact, it’s MORE cluttered now than it was when I first joined, which is unfortunate.
It doesn’t have the customizable profile annoyance that Myspace had, but it makes up for that with all of its “stalker-esque” annoyances that I have to navigate too many menus to disable, like being notified every time someone on my friends list so much as takes a dump.
While the point may be to make real world connections, I don’t like the way they enforce it. For example, I preferred to use an abbreviated version of my first and last name for further privacy than social networking sites can offer, but was unable to because Facebook decided it wasn’t my “real” name and took it upon themselves to change it, displaying my full name.
I don’t think I’m the only one who would object to the employees of a website being able to make changes to ANYTHING on my account, let alone items that are going to be displayed to everyone and ESPECIALLY without my permission.
There are also too many ads and too many things being posted that you have to look at when you sign in, even if you disable everything you can find. It seems that the site is built more for users who have abnormal fixations on other human beings and need to be notified about and participate in everything they do.
Every time they post a photo, every time they add a friend or join a group or make a profile change. It seems like a great place for people who want to live their life online as opposed to off it and that’s not me. For everything it has to offer and for all of the people who use it and rave about it, I’ve never felt like there was any real quality to the site and I was one of the earlier people to use it and watch it grow.
Simply put, there’s a whole lot going on, but not much happening.
So, things always come back to me appreciating Twitter for being everything I want WITHOUT all of the things I don’t. However, one of the things I like about Twitter – the 140 character limit on updates and the fact that updates are all text, no images/html – also happens to be one of the things I hate.
I wanted to use a web service for blogging. Up to this point, I’ve been using Blogger, Wordpress, and a few others that all have flaws that either defeat their own purposes or make them completely unsuitable for mine, making blogging more of a chore and never really making my blogs feel like “me”.
When I joined Twitter, I thought to myself, “Now, if there wasn’t a character limit and each of these updates could be the equivalent of a blog entry, including related images, and allows a particular update to be bookmarked as a separate URL, I’d be in love – which brings me to Tumblr.
At first glance, I thought, “Hey, this looks like it does what Twitter does, only the updates are more like blog entries. If that’s the case, I’m sold!” Not saying I’d cancel Twitter, just saying I’d be very likely to use both – Twitter for brief textual updates, anecdotes, etc, and Tumblr for more extended blog entries.
Since I’d be using it with more of a focus on blogging, it was important that it have a clearly defined directory that made it easy for people to find your blog as well as for you to search for others by keywords or categories.
Tumblr’s directory is the kind I don’t like – highlighting categories according to the general “tone” the site wants its community to have (musicians and artists, surprise surprise), and it seems that whether or not you’re listed in any of their categories is a matter of you requesting it and them deciding if you’re “worthy”. I like directories to be more informational, like directory listings in a telephone book, rather than a reflection of staff opinion.
However, since its SEARCH function works very well at helping me find posts and Tumblrs that I like, I have no complaints about the above. I’ll just use the search instead of the directory. It would be nice if Tumblr has a “public timeline”, showing recent posts from everyone as they happen (the way Twitter does), but it’s not necessary.
One huge thing for me when using a site for blogging is that I be able to backup/download entries for free (www.mydeardiary.com) instead of having to pay for it (www.blogdrive.com). Lastly, it’s an absolute MUST that you can change your URL whenever you like.
The only thing that worried me about Tumblr was this statement – “Customize everything”. I was afraid I’d discover that going to individual Tumblr URLs would be a fiasco of unwanted crap all over the place just like going to Myspace profiles. So far, from clicking on random Tumblr links, this doesn’t seem to be the case.
I’m also afraid that Tumblr has a lot of room for expanding in a way that’s going to make it cluttered in the end like all the other sites I hate. Twitter’s trademark is its barebones approach, so I doubt they’d be in any hurry to change that.
Tumblr, however, already has quite a few things going on when you browse it, which makes me wonder if the staff might try to do more with it. Again, I’m a fan of doing a few things perfectly, not so much of sites that just keeping adding more and more things to do just because they can. Hopefully, Tumblr will simply expand on what it’s got and not try to do too much.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating, though. Signing up for an account, I like Tumblr enough as it is to use it as I originally thought I would – a blogging site with all the elements of Twitter I adore. Will it replace Twitter? I don’t know. It’s not quite the same and people may not like the ways it’s different.
But judging from the trend with social sites, I hope it doesn’t get TOO popular to the point where it does become the “next thing”, because popularity is ironically the leading cause of the eventual death of a site’s, well, popularity.
Cyberphonics,
That was AWESOME! I really appreciate your breakdown – platform by platform. You’re certainly right about Twitter’s simplicity and it’s approach to creating valuable content.
I actually know some people who are now relying on Tumblr and Twitter alone for their web presence – and I actually think it works.
Anyway, I really do appreciate you taking the time to add your feedback. Incredibly useful insight.
Thanks again,
Drew
[...] Twitter is done, Tumblr is next (Via: @stejules) [...]
Hi Andrew,
I’m fascinated by this 6 week old discussion. In the intervening time, has your opinion changed about the relative merits and futures of Twitter and Tumblr?
John
John,
Thanks so much for helping to continue this discussion and move it forward. Your question is poignant and I have to say in the past six weeks my opinion hasn’t really changed. In fact, after my month-long series of podcasts about micro-blogging I’ve actually come to believe that twitter is just the beginning. There are more than 200 and micro-blogging services out there today, ranging from niche topics to feature driven platform deployments.
I still Twitter. I also use some other micro-blogging services and each one I use for a very different reason. It might be to reach a different audience or to accomplish a different task, but at the end of the day I don’t think twitter is evolving fast enough. As a factor of its success, any change that Twitter makes to its service is difficult for such a large audience to adopt. And as a result they will have a really hard time evolving.
I hope you’ll listen to some of the podcasts I did last month.
Thanks again for continuing the discussion.
[...] After listening to the market and watching reactions to content they had previously created, Tippingpoint Labs decided to target Twitter. Andrew Davis, the Tippingpoint Labs Chief Strategy Officer, composed an assertive and forward-looking blog post, Twitter is Done. Tumblr is Next. [...]
Hi there.
I have a Tumblr. I really like it. The layout is easy to use yet at the same time more complex. Recently I set up a Twitter account but I’ve gotten sick of it quite quickly (almost instantaneously) so that could be going soon. As many people say, Twitter is pointless. I don’t get it.
I set up my Tumblr in January 2009. I used to have a Livejournal but deleted it and now it’s all Tumblr. I really hope the Tumblr staff don’t change it too much.
Naoise,
I’m so glad that you like Tumblr and that you tried Twitter. Many people have the same reaction to Twitter as you: it’s pointless and they don’t get it.
I do enjoy Twitter and I use it often. I also really like Tumblr and use a couple other micro-blogging services as well. Try Schmownce if you’re interested.
Thanks again for participating in the discussion.
Sharing mod and retro images, links, and commentary on same as an adjunct to an established site, so never saw the point of Twitter for my purposes. Tumblr has some inane features (“Tumblarity” is an insult to those who post mostly original content for a non-Tumblr audience, as it seems to reward points based mostly on re-blogs). The ranking nonsense is easy to ignore. The tool set is great and so easy to use I’ve been neglecting my hand-built site because it’s so hassle-free to update on Tumblr.
Nice article Andrew and coming at the right time for me. I’ve avoided Twitter, but needed something which allows for quick posting and ideally to be used as a repository for ideas/notes/research for my writing. So I’ve signed up for a tumblr account and am now looking to play and get a feel. It’ll be interesting to follow thoughts on other micro-blogging sites to see if they fit or a mix and match approach is best.
David,
So glad you enjoyed the article. I really think Tumblr is great. Context is so important.
You’re right – a mix and match approach based on what you’re trying to do and who you are trying to reach is the best approach.
Have a great day.
Haha, another good one would be Schmownce! :P Go Schmownce!
Well, I think that Tumblr is a platform that combines blogging, Twitter, Facebook and all other social media sites.
You can see my tumblelog here: http://harryk.tumblr.com/.
Interesting post. I started on Twitter about 18 months ago, but it’s really only over the last 18 months that I’ve really started to get it and find value in it. Twitter for me is about the network you can develop with other individuals working in the same field. I tried out Tumblr about 6 months or so go and more recently have started to use it as a sort of online scrap book. It’s interesting that no one has commented on Posterous which has similarities with Tumblr and allows you to autopost to other sites. I wonder whether Posterous is attracting an older crowd of users. Just in the past week or two Posterous and Tumblr have been talked about as taking over from blogs (rather than Twitter) and becoming ‘lifestreams’ where people can share sites, videos, photos etc and also have blog style commentary and discussion. I’m giving both Tumblr and Posterous a go at the moment as I’m still undecided as to which I prefer and it will be interesting to see how their growth develops.
I never jumped on the twitter band wagon because I hate reading Facebook status updates. I couldn’t care less. Tumblr is an extremely easy way to share your favorite pictures, videos and songs. It is very easy to quicly come across tumblrs to follow that interest you, especially if you are into a certain subject or fandom.
My Beatle-y tumblr here:
http://lunchboxoddsox.tumblr.com/
I think shamelessly putting my tumblr link is needed
Hi – I’m pleased to see this… I was just blogging about it and I wondered if anyone else in the world aside from 15 year old girls was using Tumblr.
Great post, and I couldn’t agree more
(should I mention stuff-and-nonsense.tumblr.com?) :)
I like tumblr a lot better than twitter. It feels like i have to condense everything I’m saying when I’m on twitter… my url is http://www.jacylerhea.tumblr.com (:
Hi ! I agree with you.
After 6 months on Twitter, i still can’t see the value of it, even if sometimes i catch something interesting. It still is a big noisy place.
The whole “140 digits is awesome and make the straigth point” is something i disagree with totally. Tumblr is just awesome in that it’s supersimple to use and allows to avoid those ugly uninteresting url-shorteners that i hate :)
I was looking for a less frustrating experience then wordpress for my new video blog. After reading Gary Vaynerchuk’s book Crush It, I decided to give tumblr a try. I love that it has the viral abilities of twitter (ie, reblog and following) and it actually has the content there (beautifully) for you. twitter requires me to leave all the time to see ugly websites that aren’t controlled by the user I’m following. I like tumblr because i can shape and form the content I want my people to see and craft it in the specific way I want them to see it. If i hate ads, then I can keep my people from seeing the content with ads. *also love that they allowed me to use my domain name for free-so easy
Feel free to check out my video blog “From ordinary to extraordinary” at http://jlzoeckler.com
Great article. We started on Twitter and saw that many people were using Tumblr to link to. We started using Tumblr also and quickly discovered that there was more reaction and action on Tumblr than on Twitter. So now we are dividing our efforts between the two but if Twitter lags in reaction and benefit we may start focusing on Tumblr more and more. It does have a great community feeling and lacks the vapid self promotional texture that clutters the Twitterscape.
Twitter is like hearing about Tumblr through a tin-can phone.