The Jay Leno Show premieres tonight at 10PM on NBC.

Forget all of the statistical analysis about demographics and ad revenues on television. Forget the talk of “getting a jump” on late night. Forget the cost analysis of comedy versus scripted drama and the ratings each can expect.

The Jay Leno Show will succeed because it is 100% quality content.

And dammit, people like him

People will watch it because Jay Leno is entertaining. People want to watch him. They love his comedy. It is topical, accessible, and inoffensive. He’s engaging and affable.

Basically, NBC has just made Jay Leno’s Tonight Show available an hour and a half earlier. And I say this with all due respect to Conan O’Brien, whose program is something completely different. I’m not comparing the two.

Changing the game

It’s brilliant. CBS, ABC, Fox … you know you wish you had come up with this. If you really thought this was going to fail, you wouldn’t be out there saying it’s going to fail. You’re running scared now because you don’t want to admit defeat at 10PM, or be copycats right out of the gate.

Other broadcast networks, I believe you’ll all have a similar show in the 10PM slot within five years. Scripted drama will become the realm of the 9PM hour.

Letting the talent be talented

Fact of the matter is, NBC has gambled hard on something different, and fortune tends to favor the bold. They saw a great property and they decided to continue to make it available, and not in some pre-packaged, form-fitting, cookie-cutter way. They are allowing Jay Leno to be Jay Leno, and that’s the best way to ensure quality content.

In fact, in making the program daily and topical, they’re teaching a lesson that newspapers should be paying attention to. The Daily Show with Jon Stewart proved that there’s an audience for an alternative take on the news.

The value of his unique perspective

The newspaper industry struggles with the fact that “news” is available quickly and freely on the Internet. So the solution is to offer something beyond the news. A different take. Human elements that go beyond the simple facts. Jon Stewart mocks the news. Jay Leno has always made it very human, accessible. Jay softens the blow of sometimes painful realities.

He’s also perfectly at ease with some of the world’s largest celebrities and avoids awkward moments.

Finally, in a world where time-shifting of content consumption is becoming the norm, NBC has realized that it really doesn’t matter anymore when a program is aired. People will watch it because it’s good. After he left The Tonight Show, NBC wisely held on to Jay Leno because he’s a valuable content producer, and that’s really what it’s all about.